Scott Minerd, the Chief Investment Officer of Guggenheim Investments, has not been shy about making predictions about the price of Bitcoin (BTC) in recent years.
His statements, usually made in interviews with financial media outlets such as CNBC and Bloomberg, have made headlines thanks to his prominence in the traditional financial world.
However, a quick review of some of his key predictions shows how mixed his track record is. (A Guggenheim media representative did not immediately return a call from CoinDesk for comment).
December 2020
- Minerd said bitcoin "should be worth about $400,000."
- Bitcoin price: about $20,000.
- What happened next: bitcoin climbed to just over $40,000 in January 2021.
February 2021
- Minerd said bitcoin could rise to $400,000 to $600,000 "if you look at the supply of bitcoin relative ... to the supply of gold in the world and to the overall value of gold." He added, however, that the cryptocurrency's rapid rise "reeks of short-term speculation" and that institutional market participation, while growing, is not yet large enough to support price levels at this point.
- Bitcoin price: about $40,000.
- What happened next: bitcoin climbed to about $65,000 in April 2021.
June 2021
- Minerd told CNBC that the bitcoin price could be at $10,000 to $15,000 in its latest upswing.
- Investors should not be anxious to put money into bitcoin now, Minerd said, adding that bitcoin could trade sideways for the next few years before the market turns upward again.
- Bitcoin price: about $35,500.
- What happened next: the bitcoin price fell as low as $28,600 in the final days of June, but recovered in the months that followed. By the end of September, the price changed hands at around $44,000.
October 2021
- Minerd said he is no longer invested in bitcoin.
- "If you don't understand what's happening, you should get out of the market," Minerd said in an interview with CNBC. "Discipline now tells me I don't fully understand."
- Bitcoin's price: around $63,000.
- What happened next: bitcoin rose to a new all-time high of around $69,000 in November 2021 before retreating and crashing in the months that followed. In January, it fell as low as $32,950.
May 23, 2022
- Minerd told CNBC that bitcoin could fall as low as $8,000.
- "If you go below $30,000 permanently, $8,000 is the ultimate bottom. So I think we still have a lot of room to go down, especially because the [Federal Reserve] is restrictive."
- Bitcoin price: around $29,000.
- What happens next? ?