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CPI Has Bitcoin Pumping But Whales Are Dumping?!?
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $24,289.98, up 6.1% in the past 24 hours while Ethereum is up double that, 12% in the past 24 hours… trading at $1,880.23. The overall crypto market is up 6.6% in the past 24 hours but crypto isn’t the only thing pumping. “Traditional” markets have surged as well. The Nasdaq closed on Wednesday at 12,855, up 20.8% from its recent low in November 2020, The S&P 500 hit its highest level in three months, as it jumped 2.1% and the Dow gained 535 points, which is a 1.6% gain. The bullish action across both markets is a direct result of the recent CPI reports. The consumer price index rose 8.5% in July from a year ago, which was below expectations. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones were expecting increases of 8.7% and 0.2%, respectively. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, also saw a smaller-than-expected increase. All of these factors will be weighed by The Federal Reserve, along with other key economic data, ahead of its September meeting where analysts and economists are considering that interest rate hikes might also be lower than expected… which can lead to a bull run in the crypto markets. While this might be a strong sentiment in theory, in practice, the charts are telling a different story.
While inflation seems to be tampering off, for now, it’s still relatively high and the macro environment is uncertain. Because of this, the charts are showing that whales are selling off to de-risk. And the specific chart being referred to here is the accumulation trend score, which is an on-chain indicator. The accumulation trend score is used to determine whether entities are actively accumulating coins and is considered is a much more accurate indicator of the overall market sentiment toward buying and selling, as one can apply it to any cohort to determine the behavior of any particular group.
The indicator is made up of two metrics — an entity’s participation score and balance change score. An entity’s participation score represents its overall coin balance, while the balance change score represents the number of new coins bought or sold over one month.
If the accumulation trend score is closer to 1, that shows that the largest part of the network is accumulating. If the score is closer to 0, that shows that the network is mainly distributing its coins.
When we look at Bitcoin trend score, it's worth noting that exchanges and miners are excluded from the metrics.
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